01 · The questionPrime against the East Coast
A comparison people make on reputation. Here it is on transactions.
District 09 and District 15 attract the same buyers for different reasons. The transaction record separates them.
District 09 is Orchard, River Valley, Killiney — the postcode that means prime. District 15 is Katong, Marine Parade, Amber Road — the postcode that means East Coast. Buyers with a similar budget consider both, and usually decide on feel.
Over our window, District 09 recorded 668 resale transactions and District 15 recorded 930. That is enough to decide it on evidence.
D09 is 26.7% dearer per square foot. Over five years, D15 grew 13.9 points faster.
02 · The claimThe two districts, measured
Price, growth and size, side by side.
District 09 clears at S$2,326 psf on a median unit of 1,130 sqft, for a median price of S$2,680,000. District 15 clears at S$1,836 psf on a median unit of 1,195 sqft, for S$2,100,000.
Note the size: the District 15 median unit is 65 sqft larger. The price gap in total dollars is S$580,000 — smaller than the psf gap implies, because you are buying more floor area for it.
D09 costs more per foot and gives you less of it.
03 · MethodHow we measured it
One filter, applied identically to both districts.
- URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07. Private non-landed resale, Executive Condominiums excluded.
- Current figures: the most recent twelve months. Growth: the most recent twelve months against the first twelve of the window.
- Medians throughout, with the 10th and 90th percentiles reported so you can see the spread rather than just the middle.
- Named projects require at least 20 transactions in the recent window.
- Minimum 40 transactions before any group is reported.
Not controlled for: age, floor, facing or tenure. District 09 stock skews freehold and District 15 mixes both, and some of the psf gap is that difference rather than location.
04 · Core evidenceThe psf gap
The headline comparison, and the total-price version of it.
S$2,326 against S$1,836 psf. On identical floor area of 1,000 sqft, that is a difference of S$490,000 for the same box in a different postcode.
On 1,000 sqft the district choice alone is worth about S$490,000.
05 · The mechanismGrowth went the other way
The five-year record, which inverts the price ranking.
District 09 rose from S$2,107 to S$2,326 psf — 10.4% over five years. District 15 rose from S$1,477 to S$1,836 — 24.3%.
The cheaper district compounded 13.9 percentage points faster. On a S$2,000,000 purchase, that difference is worth roughly S$278,000 of capital over the period.
Can you compare D09 and D15 for the size and budget I am working with? →D15 grew 24.3% against D09’s 10.4%. Prime pricing and prime growth are different things.
06 · Cohort proofWhere the two districts overlap
The ranges, not the medians — and they overlap a great deal.
District 09 runs from S$1,797 at the 10th percentile to S$2,891 at the 90th. District 15 runs from S$1,311 to S$2,583.
The top of District 15 sits above the bottom of District 09 by S$786 psf. A large share of transactions in the two districts happen at prices the other district also transacts at.
Named projects make it concrete. In District 15, Amber Park cleared at S$2,909 psf across 26 transactions — above the District 09 median. In District 09, Sophia Hills cleared at S$2,110.
Comparing districts is a shortcut. Compare projects, and the district question mostly dissolves.
The district ranges overlap by S$786 psf. The district label is a weaker signal than it looks.
07 · The counter-caseWhat the gap does not buy
The honest correction: the case for District 09 that our data cannot measure.
Everything above favours District 15, and a five-year window is a short one to conclude on. Three things run the other way.
Tenure. District 09 stock skews freehold; District 15 mixes freehold and 99-year. Our separate tenure analysis puts the island-wide freehold premium at around 13.6%%, so part of the D09 psf gap is buying a different asset, not a better address.
Base effect. District 09 started the window at S$2,107 psf — already high, having run hard before our window opened. District 15 started at S$1,477. Percentage growth flatters the lower base, always.
Liquidity. Prime districts historically transact more freely to international buyers — a channel that the 60%% foreign ABSD has largely closed for now, but not permanently.
The defensible conclusion is narrow: over this window, in this data, the cheaper district returned more. That is not a forecast.
D09 skews freehold and started from a higher base. Both dampen the growth comparison — they do not reverse it.
08 · For youWhat it means for you
Four situations, four decision rules.
If you are buying to live in
The S$490,000 difference on 1,000 sqft is buying commute, schools and neighbourhood. Those are real. Just price them explicitly rather than calling it “prime”.
If you are buying for capital growth
The five-year record favours District 15 by 13.9 points. Weigh that against the freehold skew in District 09 before concluding.
If you are budget-constrained
District 15’s median total price is S$2,100,000 against District 09’s S$2,680,000, for a unit 65 sqft larger.
If you are choosing between two specific units
Ignore both districts and compare the two projects. The overlap is S$786 psf wide — wider than most people’s shortlists.
Which district is actually better for your budget?
Pick a budget. We will send both districts at that level — what it buys in size, which projects transact there, and the five-year path of each.
- What your budget buys in D09 and D15, in size and psf
- Named projects transacting at your level in both
- Five-year price path for both districts side by side
One WhatsApp message back — usually same day.
We’ll WhatsApp it shortly — usually within the day.
09 · ReferenceProject reference
Projects with enough recent transactions to report, both districts.
10 · MethodSources, limits and corrections
Data: URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07, private non-landed, Executive Condominiums excluded. Thresholds: minimum 40 transactions per reported group. Not controlled for: age, floor level, facing or tenure. District 09 stock skews freehold; see the tenure analysis for that premium separately. Reproducibility: every figure is produced by a script against the source dataset; corrections are made in place and dated. Not investment advice. Analysis of public records, published to be argued with.
Two districts, one budget. The data has a preference.
Two minutes in the Scenario Planner puts your budget against both districts on size, psf and five-year growth.
Map my move →