01 · The questionWhere the market actually is
Two numbers, moving in opposite directions.
Prices and volume have separated. That separation is the story of this market.
Outlook pieces normally open with a forecast. This one opens with a measurement, because the measurement is more interesting than anyone’s forecast: prices are up 3.8% and volume is down 8.1%.
Those two facts together describe the market more accurately than any single direction call. Below is what they mean and, at the end, what would have to change for the picture to break.
Prices up 3.8%, volume down 8.1%. Read both or read neither.
02 · The claimThe two numbers that matter
Where price and volume stand right now.
Median psf across private non-landed transactions reached S$1,773, against S$1,708 a year earlier. Volume came in at 21,270 transactions against 23,147.
A 3.8% price gain is not a boom. It is roughly the pace at which a market keeps up with itself.
S$1,773 psf, up 3.8%, on 8.1% fewer transactions.
03 · MethodHow we measured it
The filter, and why the medians are lower than the ones you see quoted.
- URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07. Private non-landed, Executive Condominiums excluded.
- New sale, sub-sale and resale combined for the market-wide figures; segment figures are on the same basis.
- Rolling twelve months against the preceding twelve, so seasonality cancels.
- Median psf, not average price — a quarter with several large launches would otherwise look like inflation.
- Minimum 40 transactions per reported group.
Caveats are lodged after the fact, so the most recent one or two months are always incomplete and will revise upward. We do not read trend from the final months.
04 · Core evidencePrices up, volume down
Five years of median psf, monthly, with policy events marked.
The series smooths a lot of noise — monthly medians on a few hundred transactions swing more than the underlying market does. What survives smoothing is a steady climb through 2022, a flatter stretch through the rate peak, and a resumption at a slower gradient.
The trend is up and the gradient is shallow. Nothing in the series looks like a turning point.
05 · The mechanismWhat the divergence means
Why prices can rise while fewer people transact.
Volume fell from 23,147 to 21,270. Prices rose anyway. The mechanism is supply-side: owners who do not need to sell simply do not list, especially when their existing mortgage is cheaper than a replacement one. Fewer listings meet undiminished demand, and the transactions that do clear skew toward sellers who held out for their price.
The practical consequence for a buyer: less choice, slower search, and less room to negotiate on any unit that is genuinely well-priced. For a seller: fewer competing listings, but also fewer buyers walking through.
Can you send me the price and volume trend for my district? →Thin markets favour whoever is less in a hurry. Right now that is usually the seller.
06 · Cohort proofThe segments are converging
Where the growth actually happened over five years.
Current medians: CCR S$2,090 psf, RCR S$1,735, OCR S$1,379. But the five-year growth ran the other way — suburban districts led and prime lagged. District D26 gained 38.7% while District D01 fell 10.5%.
Of 26 districts measured, 25 rose and 1 fell. The median district gained 24.8%. That distribution — not the island-wide number — is what a buyer is actually exposed to.
Never buy the island-wide number. The gap between the best and worst district over five years was 49 percentage points.
Suburban led, prime lagged, and the district spread was 49 points wide.
07 · The counter-caseWhat could break this
The honest correction: what this analysis cannot see.
Everything above is backward-looking, and deliberately so. Three things could invalidate the pattern, and none are visible in transaction data.
Rates. A sustained move in either direction changes borrowing capacity directly, and capacity sets prices more than sentiment does.
Supply. The launch pipeline is decided years ahead by land sales. A heavy completion year in a specific location can flatten that location while the island-wide number keeps rising.
Policy. Our own event study on cooling measures found two of four tightenings coincided with volume rising, not falling — so we would not confidently forecast the effect of the next one either.
An outlook that claims to see through all three is selling something.
The trend is measurable. The forecast is not, and we would rather say so.
08 · For youWhat it means for you
Four situations, four decisions.
If you are buying
A 3.8% annual gain does not reward waiting, and a 8.1% volume decline means less to choose from. Search on the district level, where the five-year spread reached 49 points.
If you are selling
Thin volume means fewer competing listings and fewer viewings. Price to the last three comparable transactions in your own project, not to the island median.
If you are holding
Nothing in this data argues for action. A 3.8% gain on shrinking volume is a market grinding, not turning.
If you are upgrading
You transact on both sides, so the island-wide direction largely cancels. What does not cancel is the gap between your district and your target district.
What is your district actually doing?
Pick a district. We will send its five-year price path, current median psf, transaction volume and how it ranks against the other 27 — the same series used above.
- Five-year price path and current median psf for your district
- Transaction volume trend, so you can see how thin it is
- Where it ranks against every other district
One WhatsApp message back — usually same day.
We’ll WhatsApp it shortly — usually within the day.
09 · ReferenceSegment reference
Current medians and transaction counts by segment.
10 · MethodSources, limits and corrections
Data: URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07, private non-landed, Executive Condominiums excluded. Thresholds: minimum 40 transactions per reported group. Note: recent months revise upward as caveats are lodged; trend is never read from the final two months. District five-year figures are drawn from the same dataset on a resale-only basis. Reproducibility: every figure is produced by a script against the source dataset; corrections are made in place and dated. Not investment advice. Analysis of public records, published to be argued with.
The island number will not tell you what your district is doing.
Two minutes in the Scenario Planner runs your district, your size band and your timing against the last five years.
Map my move →