01 · The questionTwo prices, one market
Every buyer faces the same fork, and the psf number answers it badly.
New launch and resale trade in the same market at persistently different prices. The reason is only partly the building.
The showflat quotes one number. The resale listing down the road quotes another, materially lower. The obvious conclusion is that new launch is expensive and resale is value — and the obvious conclusion is roughly half right.
Over the last twelve months, 9,428 new sale and 11,188 resale transactions cleared. That is enough to take the comparison apart properly.
The headline gap is 49.2%. Roughly a fifth of it is not price at all — it is floor area.
02 · The claimThe headline gap
What the raw numbers say before any adjustment.
New launch cleared at a median of S$2,646 psf. Resale cleared at S$1,773 psf. On the face of it, buyers are paying 49.2% more per square foot for the privilege of waiting three years for their keys.
Two facts complicate that reading immediately. New launch stock is concentrated in whichever locations were tendered recently, and new launch units are smaller.
S$2,646 against S$1,773 psf. True, and incomplete.
03 · MethodHow we measured it
The filter, and what it deliberately does not control for.
- URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07. Private non-landed, Executive Condominiums excluded.
- New sale (direct from developer) against resale. Sub-sales excluded — they are a different animal.
- Last twelve months only, so both sides face the same rate environment and the same policy settings.
- Medians throughout. Minimum 40 transactions per reported group.
- Segments as classified by URA: Core Central, Rest of Central, Outside Central.
What this does not control for: age, floor, facing, or the specific location within a segment. New launch is by definition new; resale spans forty years of stock. Some of the premium buys a building that has not aged yet, and that is a real thing to buy.
04 · Core evidenceThe gap by segment
Median psf, new launch against resale, in each market segment.
The gap is 41.2% in CCR, 43.0% in RCR and 40.5% in OCR. That consistency is the finding: it is not one hot launch skewing an average, it is a structural premium that holds across the island.
The new-launch premium holds at roughly 40% across all three segments.
05 · The mechanismWhy the gap is not what it looks like
The size difference does a lot of quiet work.
The median new launch unit is 829 sqft. The median resale unit is 1023 sqft — 18.9% larger. In CCR the difference is starkest: 732 sqft new against 1216 sqft resale.
Smaller units carry higher psf everywhere, in every market, for structural reasons — fixed costs per unit spread over less area. So part of the new-launch premium is not a premium for being new. It is the arithmetic of a smaller box.
Can you compare a launch I am looking at against nearby resale? →New launch units are 18.9% smaller on average. Compare total price and usable space, not psf alone.
06 · Cohort proofSame money, different unit
What the trade looks like when you hold the budget constant.
In CCR the total-price comparison inverts outright: new launch median S$2,251,000 against resale median S$2,684,444. The new unit costs S$433,444 less in absolute terms — and gives you 484 fewer square feet.
In OCR it runs the other way: new launch median S$1,940,225 against resale S$1,488,000, with the new unit 140 sqft smaller. There you pay more for less space, and the premium is unambiguous.
Compare on total price and floor area together. A psf comparison between a 750 sqft launch and a 1,200 sqft resale is not a comparison.
In CCR the launch is cheaper in total and smaller. In OCR it is dearer in total and smaller. Same premium, opposite optics.
07 · The counter-caseWhere new launch genuinely wins
The honest correction: reasons the premium can be rational.
Progressive payment. You pay in stages over construction rather than in full at completion, which materially reduces interest cost during the build and frees cash in the interim. On a S$2 million purchase over three years, that is not a rounding error.
No immediate capital expenditure. A forty-year-old resale unit may need S$80,000–150,000 of renovation on day one. That is real money, paid in cash, that never appears in a psf comparison.
And full lease. A new 99-year unit starts at 99. A resale unit at 1,773 psf with 60 years left is on a different asset entirely — a point we cover in the lease-decay analysis.
The honest read: the premium is roughly 40%%, perhaps 20–25%% of it explained by unit size, with the balance buying newness, payment timing and lease. Whether that is worth it depends on your holding period, not on the psf.
Around half the premium is explainable. The rest is a real price for real things — which you may or may not need.
08 · For youWhat it means for you
Four situations, four decision rules.
If you are buying to live in, long term
New launch payment staging and a full lease matter more the longer you hold. Above ten years, the 49.2% premium amortises into something defensible.
If you need space now
Resale gives you 18.9% more floor area at the median, and immediate occupation. If your family needs the room this year, the comparison is not close.
If you are buying in CCR
Check total price before assuming launch is dearer. The CCR launch median is S$2,251,000 against S$2,684,444 for resale.
If you are buying to rent out
Yield is calculated on total price, not psf. A smaller new unit at a lower total price can out-yield a larger resale unit despite the psf gap.
Which one is actually cheaper for you?
Tell us the segment. We will send the last twelve months of both sides — median psf, median total price and median size — so you compare like with like.
- New launch versus resale psf, price and size in your segment
- The nearest comparable resale projects to any launch you name
- A total-cost view including renovation and payment timing
One WhatsApp message back — usually same day.
We’ll WhatsApp it shortly — usually within the day.
09 · ReferenceEvery segment, in full
Both sides, all three segments, with size alongside price.
10 · MethodSources, limits and corrections
Data: URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07, private non-landed, Executive Condominiums excluded. Thresholds: minimum 40 transactions per reported group. Note: sub-sales are excluded from both sides. New sale figures reflect developer transactions only. Reproducibility: every figure is produced by a script against the source dataset; corrections are made in place and dated. Not investment advice. Analysis of public records, published to be argued with.
The psf gap is 49.2%. Your gap is different.
Two minutes in the Scenario Planner puts a specific launch against specific resale comparables, on total cost.
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