01 · The questionPricing a launch before it prices itself
You cannot analyse a project with no transactions. You can analyse everything around it.
A launch has no transaction history. The district it lands in has five years of one.
Every new launch arrives with a price and no evidence. The showflat quotes a psf, the marketing quotes comparables chosen to flatter it, and the buyer has to decide inside a preview weekend.
There is a better way to prepare, and it takes about ten minutes: work out what the surrounding district actually transacts at, then apply the measured new-launch premium. That gives you a benchmark before you walk in — not a valuation, but a number to react against.
You cannot value a launch. You can value its district, then apply the measured premium.
02 · The claimWhat District 20 costs today
The resale market around Thomson, Bishan and Upper Thomson.
Over the last twelve months, District 20 resale cleared at a median of S$1,962 psf across 371 transactions. The island-wide resale median over the same period was S$1,773, putting the district 10.7% above it.
Five years ago the district median was S$1,524 psf. It has risen 28.7% since — ahead of the island-wide pace over the same window.
D20 resale sits at S$1,962 psf, 10.7% above the island median, having grown 28.7% in five years.
03 · MethodHow we measured it
What is evidence here, and what is inference.
- URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07. Private non-landed resale in District 20, Executive Condominiums excluded.
- Current figures: most recent twelve months. Growth: most recent twelve against the first twelve of the window.
- Named projects require at least 25 transactions in the recent window.
- The launch premium applied in section 05 is measured from the same dataset — new sale against resale, RCR segment, last twelve months.
- Minimum 40 transactions per reported group.
Stated plainly: everything in sections 04 and 06 is measurement. Section 05 is inference from measurement, and it will be wrong by some margin for any specific project. It is a benchmark to argue with, not a price.
04 · Core evidenceThe resale benchmark
What the projects around it actually transact at.
Jadescape leads the district at S$2,348 psf across 70 transactions, with a median price of S$1,800,000. Thomson Three sits at S$2,145 psf.
At the other end, Braddell View clears at S$1,055 psf — a spread of S$1,293 psf inside one district. Age, lease and location within the district explain most of it.
The newest large projects in the district set the ceiling near S$2,348 psf. That is the relevant benchmark for a launch.
05 · The mechanismWhat the launch premium implies
Measured premium, applied to a measured base.
Across the whole market, new launch currently clears 43.0% above resale in the RCR segment. Applied to the District 20 resale median of S$1,962, that implies a launch benchmark around S$2,806 psf.
Applied instead to the district’s strongest recent project at S$2,348 psf — arguably the fairer base for new stock — the implied figure is higher again.
Remember what drives that premium. Roughly a fifth of it is unit size: new launch units run about 18.9% smaller than resale, and smaller units carry higher psf everywhere. The rest buys newness, payment staging and a full lease.
Can you send me the District 20 resale comparables before the preview? →A launch pricing near S$2,806 psf is in line with the district and the measured premium. Well above that needs a reason.
06 · Cohort proofProject by project
The comparables you should actually be holding at the preview.
The district median is a blunt instrument. What matters at a preview is the two or three projects a buyer would genuinely consider instead — similar age, similar location, similar size of unit.
In District 20 those are Jadescape at S$2,348 psf (median price S$1,800,000) and Thomson Three at S$2,145 psf (median price S$2,200,000). Those two numbers are the ones to bring.
Walk into a preview with three resale comparables and their median psf written down. If the launch price cannot be explained against them, the explanation is worth asking for.
Two or three named comparables beat any district average at a preview.
07 · The counter-caseWhere this reasoning fails
The honest correction: three ways a district benchmark misleads.
Land cost. A launch price is set primarily by what the developer paid for the site, plus construction and financing. If the land was tendered aggressively, the launch will price above any resale-derived benchmark regardless of what the district transacts at — and it will still sell if buyers accept it.
Project quality. Our district figures mix everything. A launch with materially better siting, layout efficiency or facilities is not the same product as the district median, and a premium for it can be entirely rational.
The premium is not a law. The 43.0% RCR figure is a current market-wide median, not a rule. It has moved before and will again.
What the benchmark is genuinely good for: telling you how far a quoted price sits from the surrounding market, and forcing the question of what the gap is buying.
The benchmark tells you the size of the gap. It does not tell you the gap is wrong.
08 · For youWhat it means for you
Four situations, four rules.
If you are attending a preview
Bring the district resale median of S$1,962 psf and two named comparables. Ask what the difference buys.
If you already own in District 20
A launch pricing above the district median generally supports resale values nearby. Your unit is a comparable for someone else’s decision.
If you are comparing launch against resale
The measured premium is 43.0% in RCR, and roughly a fifth of it is unit size. Compare total price and floor area, not psf.
If you are buying to hold ten years or more
Payment staging and a full 99-year lease favour new. The premium amortises. Below five years, it usually does not.
Walk in with the comparables, not the brochure.
Tell us which launch or district you are looking at. We will send the surrounding resale transactions, named projects with median psf, and the benchmark the current premium implies.
- Resale comparables around the site, with median psf and price
- The implied launch benchmark from the current measured premium
- Five-year price path for the district
One WhatsApp message back — usually same day.
We’ll WhatsApp it shortly — usually within the day.
09 · ReferenceProject reference
District 20 projects with enough recent transactions to report.
10 · MethodSources, limits and corrections
Data: URA caveat records, 2021-07 to 2026-07, private non-landed, Executive Condominiums excluded. Thresholds: minimum 40 transactions per reported group. Inference note: the implied launch benchmark in section 05 applies a market-wide measured premium to a district median. It is a reference point, not a valuation of any specific project. Reproducibility: every figure is produced by a script against the source dataset; corrections are made in place and dated. Not investment advice. Analysis of public records, published to be argued with.
Preview weekends reward whoever did the homework.
Two minutes in the Scenario Planner puts a quoted launch price against the resale market around it.
Map my move →